London’s strategic analysts say that the most probable scenario for Brexit, the negotiating series on the termination of British membership of the EU, is to agree on the start of the second round of negotiations on the future trade relationship at the EU summit in December.
Eurasian Group, a global economic and political risk analysis group at the London Department of the London Department, predicted that 55 percent of the year-end EU summit on 14 and 15 December would agree on the move between the British government and the leaders of 27 countries remaining in the EU .
London had already hoped that the current EU summit would decide on the start of the second round of talks on Brexit’s post-Breeds relations – first of all on the future trade relations – but on Friday, 27, they agreed that the current, no progress has been made so far in the first negotiation phase.
According to Eurasian London analysts, British Prime Minister Theresa May should find a middle ground between two competing factions within his own political hub. One is the hard-line Brexit camp of the ruling Conservative Party, whose representatives are trying to force the Prime Minister to leave negotiations with the EU, and rather to prepare for an agreement on post-exit relations, and the other for the conservative EU- whose members would mobilize the London Parliament to reject the completion of negotiations without an agreement.
In this situation, Theresa May has so far been unable to offer concessions for the agreement, but will continue to do so in order to promote negotiations. One of the manifestations of this is Eurasia Group’s London analysts, according to the British Government’s legal recognition of the financial obligations of the European Union over the period after Brex.
According to the House, this makes it easier for Theresa May that the EU is not currently seeking an agreement on a specific amount of British financial obligations against it, instead, the two sides will certainly agree on “baskets”, ie the “divorce account” within each category what kind of items should be put up for, but summation is not yet the case.
According to Eurasia’s second, less favorable scenario, however, the chances that Theresa May will not be stolen before Christmas is not negligible. The position of the head of government – since the conservatives lost their little under-house majority in the early elections in June – was rather unwise, and at the party’s last annual congress the prime minister was “catastrophically” and the rumor that the mayor heard in the tory paddles since then he will no longer be able to regain control of the party.
According to Eurasia’s experts, May may be too much in EU negotiations, especially in the area of financial obligations, or if it wants an agreement under which Britain will be “too close” in economic and regulatory terms to the EU, it can easily be overthrown.
In its Friday paper, Eurasia Group gives this scenario a 35 percent chance of realization.
Housing analysts say the Brexit Party Tory is still supporting Theresa May, because he is convinced that the Prime Minister will implement the tough Brexit, that is, a full institutional break with the EU. If this camp begins to perceive a somewhat lighter, intermediate solution strategy, then the likelihood of overcoming Theresa May will increase.
The third scenario in Eurasia is the collapse of the exit negotiations and the launch of the preparations for the unexpired exit. The company gives 10 percent chance for this outcome.
According to the study, the cause of this outcome is that the UK government wants to introduce a registration system for foreign EU citizens living in Britain and wants to enter into commercial agreements with third countries, while also seeking a free trade agreement with the EU.
According to Eurasia, 27 Member States remaining in the EU do not take this one year and if there is no progress on this issue, it is hardly a convincing way to reach the EU summit in December on negotiations on exit conditions.
Source: MTI / Image: hir.ma /