Probabilistic tens of thousands of people are planning to invest far fewer than four jobs abroad at London City’s financial service companies after UK membership ends, according to Financial Times’s Thursday estimate.
The London Business Day, based on the most recent executive statements of City 15’s largest banks and dozens of bank executives, concluded that London’s large banks would install 4315 jobs abroad.
Deutsche Bank’s investment department in London, one of whose managers has recently resigned four thousand jobs, the Financial Times estimates that it would only take 350 jobs out of the City. This is 5 per cent of Deutsche Bank’s London employee.
Jamie Dimon, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer of JP Morgan, has already offered to resettle four thousand jobs in London from the British EU membership last June, with a narrow majority in the run-up to the withdrawals, by the United Kingdom leaving the European Union. At JP Morgan, in London, there are currently 16,000. According to the Financial Times poll Thursday, however, the number of vacancies transferred from the London branch of the company may be around 700 at the expected time of Brexit until the spring of 2019.
According to the paper, however, some bank executives still do not rule out the possibility of a dramatic impact on the financial center of the city in the long run. Rob Rooney, Executive Director of Morgan Stanley International, told the Financial Times: “The story has always been about what will happen in 3-5 years.”
This opinion is also shared by large London think tanks.
According to the model calculations of the Oliver Wyman Global Corporate Advisory Company, worst-case scenarios will result in 40% -50% fall in business activity in the EU market, resulting in a loss of revenue of 18-20 billion pounds (6500-7200 billion forints) and 31-35 thousand jobs London Financial Services Sector.
However, this would only be a direct effect, with additional spill-over secondary effects of another 14 to 18 billion pounds and 34-40 thousand jobs. The extreme impact of the worst scenario could lead to revenue losses of up to 38 billion pounds (almost 14,000 billion forints) and 75,000 jobs in the city, according to London analyst Oliver Wyman.
According to a study from the Center for London, another analyst, if London’s financial center loses access to the European Union’s single market, it may lead to the disappearance of 70,000 city-based financial services jobs.
According to the company, this would be a disaster, as the value of exports of financial and other related services in London’s total exports reaches 100 billion pounds (almost 36,000 billion forints) per annum, 50 percent of the total exports of the London economy.
Source: MTI / Image: hirek.ma /