The UK government has been leaked in many details, according to an impact study by parliamentarians last Wednesday evening, according to the impact study of all parts of the UK, which is badly affected by UK membership,
The impact study will cover 15 years of forecasting and three scenarios.
The first is that the United Kingdom remains a member of the EU single market, the second simulation model assumes that London – as the British government plans to do – leaves the EU internal market, but concludes a free trade agreement with the EU, it analyzes possible growth effects of the uncommitted Brexit.
The detailed model calculations show that the cumulative growth rate of UK domestic total GDP (GDP) would reach 2 percentage points in the case of the most favorable Brexit scenario in the next 15 years as compared to the cumulative growth in the same period of EU membership. On the basis of the least bad scenario, the United Kingdom will remain a member of the European Economic Area (EEA) and thus continue to have access to the EU single market.
If the United Kingdom withdraws from the European Union’s single internal market but succeeds with an EU free trade agreement for the post-Brexit period – as the United Kingdom Government has formally planned – the cumulative growth rate would be 5 percentage points over the forecast for a one and a half decade the whole economy.
The government experts who compile the study estimate that in the absence of any Brexit agreement and the WTO rules on trade with the European Union will enter into force, which would entail the imposition of duties, a total of 8 percentage points GDP growth loss on a national average.
There are significant differences within the average. According to the impact study, London would suffer the least of the Brexit scenarios that were taken into account: the London economy, based on model calculations, would respond to the three scenarios developed with a minus 1, minus 2 and a minus 3.5 percentage point cumulative growth gap over 15 years, which would be expected in the UK domestic capital of the British capital for the future UK membership of the EU.
The worst was England’s north-east region and Northern Ireland.
Northeast England, which receives most of the EU’s development aid from all the UK regions, would have raised 3, 11 and 16 percentage points in Northern Ireland by 2.5, 8 and 12 percentage points of cumulative GDP growth in 15 years in the three outlined Brex -scenario.
In Scotland, minus 2.5, minus 6 and minus 9 percentage points, in Wales minus 1.5, minus 5.5 and minus 9.5 percentage points, would have a cumulative growth impact on the three modeled outcomes of the Brexit negotiations.
British government sources have stressed after the first leaks that the study was “an early, semi-final draft” that does not include the effects that the British government’s “deep and special relationship” to the British economy would have with the European Union in the intentions of the British government.
However, the government decided to give a “confidential insight” to the members of the House of Representatives and the House of Lords of the House of Lords, in the upper parliamentary chamber. This was done Wednesday, and although the British government did not want to present the analysis to the public, the document almost immediately came to all leading British media companies.
Mark Carney, the Governor of the Bank of England, has warned before the leaks about the negative growth impacts of uncertainties surrounding Brex.
Carney recently stated that the percentage growth rate of investment in the other advanced industrial economies is two-digit, while at the same time the UK economy is heading towards the lower end of the single-digit range.
The head of the Bank of England said that the nominal UK domestic product was already one percent below the level that the central bank expected from the EU membership in the summer of 2016 before the referendum before the end of this year, with a narrow majority in the run-up to the withdrawals. According to Carney, this means a loss of activity worth tens of billions of pounds.