London’s financial analysts expect long-awaited strong growth momentum in the global emerging area for the coming year.
Macroeconomic analysts of Oxford Economics at London’s Oxford Economics announced in their study on the upcoming prospects for the forthcoming year that the economies of the emerging market region will expect an average growth of 4.7 percent in the economies next year and 2019, , After a 4 percent increase.
According to the House, the combined growth rate of the emerging global group of countries has not exceeded so far the highly developed industrial economies since the financial crisis of nearly ten years ago.
Oxford Ecomnomics does not stand out for the expected growth rate of an advanced industrial area. In its annual forecast for Moody’s Investors Service in London, however, it announced that the G20’s largest economic growth centers, which make up 80 percent of GDP, are likely to see a 2 percent increase this year, next year and 2019.
Moody’s will expect an average growth of 5.4 per cent in the emerging economies of the G20 next year after the 5 per cent GDP growth in 2017.
Moody’s analysts, however, have stressed that geopolitical risks, especially the Korean conflict, the unclear direction of American commercial policy and the potential for higher exchange rate swaps in investment vehicles remain the biggest known risk for global growth prospects.
London analysts at Oxford Economics, however, expressed their view on Friday’s global projections that relative specific risks on emerging economies’ growth prospects have fallen, with particular regard to the risks identified in an industrialized area. The House ranked Donald Trump’s victory over last year’s US presidential election, the cessation process of the British EU membership, and the “populist pressure” perceived in Europe.
According to Oxford Economics, however, the initial fears associated with the Trump Presidency were neglected and the concerns related to the spread of trade protectionism were alleviated. According to the company, this has also contributed to the improvement of the growth prospects of the global emerging area.
London analysts at Oxford Ecomomics suggest that the economies of the catching-up region are now in a much better position to undertake tightening US monetary policy than in 2013 when the first news releases of the Federal Reserve’s relieving cycle of US central bank operations triggered a serious market upsurge in emerging markets.
According to the house, the emerging region’s external payment positions are strong, their foreign exchange reserves are higher and their real interest spreads to advanced industrial economies are wider.
Oxford Economics’s default projection scenario is that the Fed will carry out another two rate hikes in 2018 this year. London’s analysts point to the fact that the Fed’s interest rate track has been fully hedged by the markets.
Source: MTI / Image: twitter.com /