The International Monetary Fund (IMF) maintained its April forecast for the world economy’s growth this year and next year, but signaled that prospects are growing with increasing risks.
The World Economic Outlook (IMF) on Monday reported unchanged that gross domestic product (GDP) will rise 3.9 percent this year and next year, with the global average.
At the same time, the currency base judges the growth prospects of the euro area, Japan and the UK.
According to the updated prognosis, GDP growth in several countries will slow down compared to last year and this April’s estimate.
The IMF forecasts that the US central bank will continue its interest rate hike in the next two years, further strengthening the dollar.
According to the report of the July report, the most damaging factor in global economic growth is the deepening of the trade war. The first steps taken by the United States are countered by, among other things, China, the European Union, the NAFTA countries (North American Free Trade Agreement) and Japan.
World trade has strengthened last year after two weak years and grew by 5.1 percent. This year, growth will be 4.8 per cent, next year 4.5 per cent will be the latest forecast, with the IMF forecasting this year’s 0.3 percentage point, 0.2 percentage points lower than the April forecast for next year.
The euro area economy is forecast to grow by 2.2 per cent this year. This is smaller than the 2.4% expected in April and was down from last year’s 2.4% growth. The next year’s estimate was down from 2 percent to 1.9 percent by the IMF.
Germany’s forecast for GDP growth this year has been changed by the IMF from 2.5 per cent in April to 2.2 per cent after its economy grew by 2.5 per cent last year. Forecast GDP growth figures for next year have improved from 2 percent to 2.1 percent.
The IMF is also worried about Japan’s economic performance this year: it has reduced its GDP estimates from 1.2 per cent in April, to 1 per cent. Last year, Japanese GDP grew by 1.7 percent. Next year, Japan’s economic growth is expected to remain unchanged at 0.9 percent.
The UK International Monetary Fund forecast changed from 1.6 per cent to 1.4 per cent in its report on Monday. Last year, UK GDP grew by 1.7 percent. The IMF report compilers will continue to appreciate next year’s 1.5 percent increase in the April forecast.
First of all, the US economy may grow this year, at a rate similar to the April forecast, to 2.9 percent more than last year’s 2.3 percent, as a result of December’s tax cuts and government spending growth. Next year, its economic performance may slow down to 2.7 percent, as it did in the April forecast.
For emerging and developing countries, the GDP growth forecast of 4.9 per cent expected in April. There are, however, great differences between the countries in the group, in the opposite direction.
Supply disruption and geopolitical tensions contributed to the increase in oil prices. This was favorable to countries exporting petroleum, such as Russia and some Middle East countries, but it has impressed the importers, such as India. When looking at emerging market economies, upward and downward shifts virtually eliminate each other – the report says.
As in April’s forecast, the IMF is still expecting 6.6 percent economic growth in China after last year’s 6.9 percent. The GDP growth forecast of 6.4 percent next year is the same as expected in April.
Russia’s forecast for GDP growth this year and next year has remained unchanged, remaining 1.7 and 1.5 percent after 1.5 percent last year.
In India, the IMF dropped its forecast for GDP growth over the previous year from 7.4 per cent to 7.3 per cent, which, however, surpassed 6.7 per cent last year. The next year’s data is recaptured from 7.8 percent to 7.5 percent by the IMF.
Brazil’s economy will grow by 1.8 percent this year than expected in April, up from 2.3 percent in April, up from 1 percent last year and grow by 2.5 percent next year than expected in the spring. For Mexico, the IMF continues to grow 2.3 percent this year with a year-on-year growth of 2 percent last year. However, next year the IMF has deteriorated from 3 per cent to 2.7 per cent.
According to the International Monetary Fund, world oil prices rose 33 percent to $ 70.23 a year earlier than last year. In April, the international institute reported a modest 18 percent increase.
According to the most recent forecast of the International Monetary Fund, in developed economies, inflation will be 2.2 percent this year instead of the 2 percent expected in April and 1.7 percent last year. Consumer price increases will be 2.2 percent next year, compared to 1.9 percent in April.
For emerging and developing countries, the IMF expects a 4.4 percent inflation, instead of 4.6 percent in April and 4 percent last year. Next year, the price increase will be 4.4 percent compared to 4.3 percent in April.