At the end of 2017, the performance of the British economy’s production sectors rose to the top of the decade.
According to the British Statistical Office (ONS) data on Wednesday, the economy’s overall index of production in November last year was the highest since last February’s peak in February.
The same goes for the narrower production index calculated for the manufacturing sector.
According to ONS, the total output of the main manufacturing sectors rose by 1.2 percent in three months moving compared with the three months ended November last year. For this, the manufacturing industry contributed the most with a 1.4 percent increase in performance over the period under review.
To select a production benchmark of 100, ONS uses 2015 performance data. Compared to the overall output index of the UK economy’s manufacturing sectors and the manufacturing sector’s manufacturing index, it was around 105 in November last year.
According to the statistical office, however, these indicators have still not reached the levels before the global financial crisis, as in February 2008, at the time of the last peak performance measurement, the reclassified production index was around 110-111 points.
The financial performance of the UK economy as a whole is perceived by international financial and business organizations, despite the upswing in manufacturing.
At the end of December, the International Monetary Fund (IMF), in London, estimated only 1.5% of UK GDP growth this year. According to the IMF, the growth rate of investment in Britain is already below the level that could be expected in the current strong global economic growth and businesses are expected to continue deferring their investment decisions until the UK and EU future trade relationship conditions.
The annual report of the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), developed by the developed industrial economies (OECD) in London, also stated that if the British government does not enter into a free trade agreement with the EU until the expected date of termination of EU membership and by 2019 (WTO) rules – which would bring tariff and other barriers to bilateral trade – would slow the growth rate of the UK economy by 1.5 percentage points compared to the basic prognosis calculating the agreement at that time.
This may even be a recession, as prospect default forecasts are unlikely to increase slower than 1.5 percent in the UK economy by 2019.