It is possible to reach half the million lost British jobs if Britain leaves the European Union without agreement – is the latest study on Mayor of London, Sadiq Khan, on Thursday.
Khan announced in December that he had commissioned more impact assessments on the likely economic and business consequences of UK membership.
A major analyst at Cambridge Econometrics investigated several possible scenarios in the first analysis presented on Thursday. The worst one of them is that Britain does not succeed in reaching an agreement with the EU on the relationship between the post-cessation of British membership in the EU. According to this model, there is no free trade agreement, and bilateral trade rules will be introduced by the World Trade Organization (WTO) rules, which would entail the imposition of duties.
Based on the Cambridge Econometrics computing model, in this case, more than 480,000 jobs would be lost in Great Britain by 2030 and the United Kingdom’s total domestic product (GDP) by 2030 would be 3 percent – 55 billion pounds – lower than the British economy could become a member of the European Union’s single internal market and customs union that year.
According to the house’s calculations, a potential 50 billion pound foreign direct investment would be lost in the same period.
The cornerstone of the British government’s Brexit strategy is that Britain not only comes from the European Union, but also from the EU’s single internal market and from the customs union. London argues that further British membership in these two integration organizations would imply fulfillment of conditionalities as if the British EU membership did not cease to exist.
The UK Government, however, seeks a comprehensive free trade agreement with the EU on financial services.
However, according to a study published on Cambridge Econometrics on Thursday, however, failing to reach such a free trade agreement until the end of British membership in March next year, it will only hit 29,000 jobs in London’s Financial Services Center by 2030.
Other major analysts also drew attention to the Brexit risks on the City’s employment prospects.
The most detailed analysis of this risk was made by Oliver Wyman Global Corporate Consulting Company. According to the house model’s calculations, the worst scenario scenario is that the EU-market-related business activity falls by 40-50 percent in the London financial services sector, causing a loss of revenue of 18-20 billion pounds and 31-35 thousand jobs in the City.
However, this would only be a direct effect, with additional spill-over secondary effects of another 14 to 18 billion pounds and 34-40 thousand jobs. The extreme impact of the worst scenario could result in a loss of revenue of up to 38 billion pounds and 75,000 jobs in the city, according to analysts at Oliver Wyman, London.
According to a study from the Center for London, another analyst, if London’s financial center loses access to the European Union’s single market, it may lead to the disappearance of 70,000 city-based financial services jobs.
According to the company, this would be a disaster, as the value of exports of financial and other related services within London’s total independent export reaches £ 100 billion a year, 50 percent of the total export of the London economy.