The 2018 year begins with extremely good global public debt-quality prospects – is based on Fitch Ratings’ annual assessment of the situation in London on Monday. According to the international rating agency, since 2004, the highest number of developed industrial economies with a sovereign grade will improve next year.
According to Fitch’s comprehensive report, eight of the state-owned industrialists in the developed industrial area currently have a positive outlook for upgrading the rating of eight. In the company’s sovereign rating portfolio, the outlook for the UK public debt rating alone is negative for this group of countries.
The global emerging area, however, shows a more mixed picture: in this round, Fitch also has a positive outlook for eight sovereign ratings, with 13 per cent of negative public debt ratings.
According to the company, this suggests 2018 may be the fourth year in a row when the number of downgrades in the emerging group exceeds its rating.
Among the emerging regional state debtors with a positive outlook is Hungary on the Fitch list.
In November, the company improved its outlook for the long-term foreign debt denominated in foreign currency and in forint terms with the “BBB minus” level of investment recommendation, the other two major credit ratings, Moody’s Invesotrs Service and Standard & Poor’s, the same as the Hungarian sovereign rating. For this reason, Fitch emphasized that it is expected that 2017 will be the sixth year in a row in which the Hungarian government debt ratio will be reduced.
In a global assessment of the situation as described on Monday, the credit rating emphasizes that the global economic growth momentum has not been as strong as it has been since 2010. The US economy is likely to be boosted by fiscal stimulus and boosting private sector investment, euro area growth is expected to remain broadly based and the prospects for the Japanese economy will improve as well, with a good chance that the moderate deceleration in the Chinese economy will not cause global growth disruption – predicts Fitch Ratings from London analysts.
The credit rating for the US economy is 2.3 percent this year, 2.5 percent next year, 2.3 percent in the euro area, 2.2 percent in China, 6.4 percent in China, 6.4 percent in the developed industrial area, and 2.2 per cent on average in the emerging economies, and 3.2 per cent and 5.2 per cent on the global economy, and 3.2 per cent in the global economy.
Other global credit ratings on global debtors also gave good ratings in their forecasts for 2018.
Moody’s Investors Service’s projection in London has highlighted that 102 of its 137 sovereign debtors have a stable outlook for their sovereign debt rating, including Hungary. This means that 74 percent of the public debtors on the global list of Moody’s are stable.
Moody’s has a further 13 public debt ratings with a positive outlook.
The number of state debtors with negative outlook, ie downgrading, is currently 22; this is 16 percent.
Moody’s emphasized that a year ago, 35 state-rate ratings – 26 percent of sovereign debtors on the list – had a negative outlook, which means that in 2018 less public debt downgrading seems likely.
Out of the three major international rating agencies, only Moody’s holds a stable view of the Hungarian public debt rating, and Fitch’s and Standard & Poor’s’s Hungarian outlook is positive.
Source: MTI / Image: cg.hu /