It would cost big bills to British merchants every year if, after the termination of British membership of the EU, they would have to deal with customs administration in trade with the EU – said in a comprehensive study on one of London’s leading analysts on Monday.
The Institute for Government (IfG), an independent economics consultant and research firm specializing in the analysis of government activity, has published a 54-page paper. According to their calculations, if Britain had left the commercial and forwarding companies to complete customs declarations at exit and exit points, the additional administrative burden on the 180,000 British companies trading with the EU partners – mostly small and medium-sized companies – would result in an additional cost of 4-9 billion pounds per year (1400-3100 billion forints).
The processing of a customs declaration by IFG experts would cost between 20 and 45 pounds and 200 million such documents should be completed annually.
IfG analysts say that in addition to the UK’s short-term preparation of commercial traffic terminals rather than the other side of the Channel, such as Calais and Rotterdam, there is no direct impact on the British government.
According to the analysis, only 800 people in the port of Rotterdam should be recruited to serve the customs administration of commercial transactions with Great Britain.
The Institute for Government analysts emphasize that the 27 Member States remaining in the European Union will be legally obliged to see British exports to the EU as imports from outside the EU if Britain leaves the EU without reaching an agreement on duty-free trade maintained.
The IFG study illustrates the potential impacts of unexpected customs relief barriers in this case when, in 2015, French crew of Calais portrayed a 50-kilometer lorry on the M20 motorway to South East England ferry terminals and rail terminals, and according to the calculations of the British cargo carriers’ calculations, the breakdown caused damage to the British economy by 250 million pounds (84 billion forints) a day.
The IFG analysis highlights that the trade volume between the UK and the EU, which is currently duty free, was 382 billion pounds (130 thousand billion forints) last year. Of this, 119 billion pounds were flowed through the UK’s largest ferry port, via Dover, with 2.6 million trucks. Ever since the single EU market was established in 1993, Dover’s truck sales grew by 150 percent and the port expanded its infrastructure accordingly, but the area for administrative management of goods did not increase and the capacity of customs controls did not increase.
London, along with the cessation of British membership of the EU, wants to move away from the single European internal market and the customs union, but at the same time strives for a comprehensive free trade agreement with the EU.
The British business sector has warned the government about the risks of this strategy several times. According to the repeated calls from business representatives, if negotiations on exit conditions do not succeed in reaching a free trade agreement that the UK economy has access to the EU’s internal market, then the World Trade Organization (WTO) rules will apply to British trade with the Union would mean customs in the currently-accessible bilateral trade.
According to experts, this would mean, for example, the British food industry 20 percent, and the British automotive industry would have a 10 percent, virtually irreversible, surplus.
Source: MTI / Image: financetwitter.com /