According to market and analyst expectations, the Bank of England’s Monetary Council did not change its base rate. According to the Thursday announcement on the interest rate session, 0.75 percent remains the key interest rate of the British central bank.
In the new quarterly inflation report published after the announcement of the interest rate decision, the Bank of England points out that in the midst of uncertainties surrounding the expiration of the British EU membership in March next year, the investments in the British economy were virtually overwhelmed.
The Monetary Board voted unanimously on the basis of the report on Thursday: all nine members, including Mark Carney, Governor of the Bank of England, voted for interest.
In November last year, Bank of England, after ten years, raised its base rate by 0.25 percentage points to 0.50 percent. This was followed by a further 0.25 percentage point increase in August, resulting in a current 0.75 percent base rate.
Carney said at a press conference on Thursday’s new inflation report that the value of investments made by the business sector fell by more than one percent in the first half of the year, and the investment value so far this year fell by almost 15 percent below the monetary council’s level of EU membership Prior to the referendum held in June 2016, he waited for this period.
In the referendum, the small, 51.89 percent majority of the participants said Britain would step out of the European Union.
According to estimates in the Bank of England’s new inflation report, the value of business investment in the UK economy fell by 0.5 per cent in the same quarter last year, much more than previously expected, reflecting largely the increase in uncertainties in Brexel .
The British central bank, all in all, reduced its forecast for the year-on-year growth of business investment this year to zero for a projection of 1.75 percent.
Based on this, the Bank of England has cut its forecast for growth in the UK’s total domestic product (GDP) this year from 1.4 percent to 1.4 percent to 1.3 percent and 1.7 percent from 1.8 percent to 2019, boosting its growth forecast for 2019.
These predictions also apply to the case when the Brexit process runs smoothly.
According to the British central bank, if Britain leaves the European Union in an unorganized way, ie without leaving an agreement on the conditions for exit, it may have consequences for the delays in trade in goods across borders, and may lead to serious disruptions in the supply chain chains. business sector.
Even if London’s major analysts do not rule out this scenario, the British economy will not rule out recession.
According to the new forecast forecasted in London this week by Standard & Poor’s Financial Services Group (S & P Global Ratings), in case of an agreement with Brexit, the British economy will be in recession for four to five quarters and a 2.7% cumulative decline in GDP in two years’ time.
According to S & P model calculations, the UK domestic product will again grow, but the economy’s performance in 2021 will still be 5.5 percent below the level that could be reached for Brexit in orderly circumstances.
According to Standard & Poor’s estimates, unexpired exit would result in British unemployment rising from a current 4% downturn to 2021 to 7.4 percent and real estate prices would fall by 10 percent in two years.
According to the company, this would result in an annual loss of income of 2700 pounds ($ 985,000) per household in the 2019-2021 period.