According to the Scottish government, the Scottish economy would have billions of hard brexes, ie if Britain would leave the European Union without agreement.
The 58-page study of the Scottish Government on Monday contains economic calculations for several scenarios. According to the most unfavorable, modeling the consequences of the harsh Brexit, by 2030, Scotland’s total domestic product (GDP) would remain 8.5 percent below the level that the Scottish economy would have been able to achieve in the current year of EU membership.
This scenario assumes that trade with Britain and the EU after the end of British membership of the EU will be subject to the World Trade Organization’s (WTO) rules, which would mean the imposition of customs duties or non-tariff barriers.
According to the Scottish government’s report, this scenario would cost £ 12.7 billion (more than 4400 billion forints) to the loss of the Scottish economy by 2030.
This is as if every Scrooge would fall by 2300 pounds a year for the next twelve years – he says.
The Scottish Government’s analysis specifically mentions foreign EU workers working in Scotland in connection with the British government’s intention to move from a single European internal market. London does not want to keep up with the free labor flow within the EU, and this is one of the conditions for a single internal market.
According to the Scottish government’s calculations, foreign EU nationals working in Scotland each contribute an average of 34,400 pounds per annum, together with a total of 4.42 billion pounds, to the annual Scottish GDP, each of which receives the Scottish budget on average 10,400 pounds annually.
The Scottish government has already indicated that it is in any case wanting to intimidate foreign EU workers working in Scotland.
Nicola Sturgeon, the Scottish prime minister, recently announced that if the UK government is obliged to reimburse UK citizenship for UK citizenship after the end of UK membership, the Scottish government pays this cost to the Scottish public service sector, EU workers.
The British government plans to make a permanent residence permit for foreign EU workers for a permanent residence in Great Britain will no longer be subject to a tax levied on the issue of British passports.
British passport is currently paid £ 72.50.
The Scottish government has published a separate statistical study on EU workers in Scotland a few weeks ago. It has shown that over the last twelve months, an average of 209,000 foreign EU citizens have lived in Scotland. The majority of them, 59.3 percent, came from the Central and Eastern European countries, including Hungary, in the European Union in 2004.
Of the foreign EU citizens over 16 years of age living in Scotland, 128,400 were employed. They gave 5 percent of the total Scottish labor force, and the employment rate was 76.8 percent, which was above the 73.3 percent average of the working-age Scottish population.
Scotland’s employment rate for Central and Eastern European citizens is even higher, at 82.4 per cent, while workers from older EU countries to Scotland have only been 70.7 per cent over the past year.
In the referendum held on June 21, 2016, the national average was 51.9 percent of the participants, and 62 percent of Scotland voted to stay.